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This is a graph of data from the 2004 NFL Regular Season games charting each team's winning ratio (X-axis) versus their seasons Strength of Schedule (Y-axis). Strength of Schedule is the total number of all their opponents' wins divided by 256 (the total number of games played by any 16 teams in a 16-game season.)
The sloping line, the trend line, is the line mathematically determined to be the "best fit" average of the data points (y = -0.0706x + 0.5353). On this chart the trend line will always go through the point (0.5,0.5) -- which is another way of saying that an average team playing 16 games against 16 other average teams can expect to win 1/2 of the games. On average and in general, teams above the line did better than expected (based on their Strength of Schedule), and teams below the line did not. It is easy to see that Cleveland had the toughest schedule and Atlanta had the easiest schedule in the 2004 season. You may determine the 2005 NFL Draft Order by reading from left to right (starting with San Francisco) and bottom to top in each column. (Playoff teams draft order is determined by playoff results.) |