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This is a graph of data from the 2006 NFL Regular Season games charting each team's winning ratio (X-axis) versus their seasons Strength of Schedule (Y-axis). Strength of Schedule is the total number of all their opponents' wins divided by 256 (the total number of games played by any 16 teams in a 16-game season.)
The sloping line, the trend line, is the line mathematically determined to be the "best fit" average of the data points (y = -0.1181x + 0.5592). On this chart the trend line will always go through the point (0.5,0.5) -- which is another way of saying that an average team playing 16 games against 16 other average teams can expect to win 1/2 of the games. On average and in general, teams above the line did better than expected (based on their Strength of Schedule), and teams below the line did not. It is easy to see that Buffalo had the toughest schedule and Chicago had the easiest schedule in the 2006 season. You may determine the 2007 NFL Draft Order by reading from left to right (starting with Oakland) and bottom to top in each column. (The tie between Cleveland and Tampa Bay for the third and fourth positions will be broken by a coin flip. Playoff teams draft order is subject to the results of the playoffs.) Normally, the last twelve teams in this order are the playoff teams, but this year the NFC team New York Giants made the playoffs with an 8-8 record. Also, Kansas City is in over Denver based on their better division record (KAN 4-2 vs DEN 3-3) even though KAN had an easier strength of schedule (which is the 6th tiebreaker within a division.) |