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This is a graph of data from the 2007 NFL Regular Season games charting each team's winning ratio (X-axis) versus their seasons Strength of Schedule (Y-axis). Strength of Schedule is the total number of all their opponents' wins divided by 256 (the total number of games played by any 16 teams in a 16-game season.)
The sloping line, the trend line, is the line mathematically determined to be the "best fit" average of the data points (y = -0.0602x + 0.5303). On this chart the trend line will always go through the point (0.5,0.5) -- which is another way of saying that an average team playing 16 games against 16 other average teams can expect to win 1/2 of the games. On average and in general, teams above the line did better than expected (based on their Strength of Schedule), and teams below the line did not. It is easy to see that Philadelphia had the toughest schedule and Seattle had the easiest schedule in the 2007 season. You may determine the 2008 NFL Draft Order by reading from left to right (starting with Miami) and bottom to top in each column. Playoff teams draft order is subject to the results of the playoffs. Since Cleveland is not in the playoffs, the Browns have priority in the draft ahead of playoffs teams with the same record (SEA, PIT, TEN & NYG.) Atlanta, Kansas City, and Oakland had the same Strength of Schedule in the 2007 season. Since Kansas City finished third in the AFC West Division and the Raiders fourth (the tie was broken on the basis of record in common games), the Raiders will draft ahead of the Chiefs. Atlanta and Oakland will flip a coin for the third position at the NFL Combine in February. If Atlanta wins [WHICH THEY DID], the Falcons will draft third, the Raiders fourth, and the Chiefs fifth. If the Raiders win the coin flip [DID NOT], they will draft third, and the Falcons and Chiefs will flip a coin to determine the fourth and fifth positions. Though Buffalo and Denver had the same Strength of Schedule, their tie for the 11th and 12th positions was broken by the conference tie-breaker. Since Denver defeated Buffalo in head-to-head competition, Buffalo is given priority in the draft order and will select in the 11th position. Chicago and Detroit also had the same Strength of Schedule. Their tie for the 14th and 15th positions was broken by the divisional tiebreaker. Since the Lions defeated the Bears twice in head-to-head competition, Chicago is given priority and will select in the 14th position. |