Simulations for Skills Training
Chapter 12: Contending with Unpredictability
Overview:
Modeling can run into problems when dealing with predictability. Chapter 12 draws on ideas from chaos theory to discuss the relationship between determinism and predictability in an operational system. Reviews an illustration of a deterministic but unpredictable system, and expresses the illustration in the time-slice format. Closes with a brief review of the work and a look at future prospects.
Chapter Topics:
System Randomness
Environmental Chaos
The Butterfly Effect
Playing the Beer Game
What the Future Holds
Exercises
Supplemental Reading