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Chapter 11

 

Simulations for Skills Training

Chapter 12: Contending with Unpredictability

 

Overview:

Modeling can run into problems when dealing with predictability. Chapter 12 draws on ideas from chaos theory to discuss the relationship between determinism and predictability in an operational system. Reviews an illustration of a deterministic but unpredictable system, and expresses the illustration in the time-slice format. Closes with a brief review of the work and a look at future prospects.

 

Chapter Topics:

System Randomness

Environmental Chaos

The Butterfly Effect

Playing the Beer Game

What the Future Holds

Exercises

Supplemental Reading