UPDATED:  Sunday, 6-27-99 - 1700Z - 1200CDT
NEXT UPDATE:  Next significant severe weather event

I am winding down my outlooks for now. Upper ridging and weak flow aloft will preclude the chance of significant severe thunderstorms for the foreseeable future and likely until fall. The long range models are still forecasting some stronger dynamics for the central plains down into the TX panhandle and extreme northern Oklahoma over the next few weeks. I will be monitoring things everyday and watching for anything worthy of future outlooks this summer, so check in time from time just in case. Expect my regular outlooks to resume once again around the first week or two of September. Until then, outlooks will only be issued as deemed necessary.


MY OUTLOOK PAGE
This is my forecast today for severe thunderstorms throughout Oklahoma and the northern half of Texas. My outlooks are mainly for chasers as we will drive hundreds of miles for a storm. To the best of my abilities, I endeavor to forecast the intensity of the strongest storms and not for expected coverage. I outline the expected coverage in my discussion. My levels of criteria are generally as follows:

Marginally Severe - Storms with very minimum severe criteria with 60mph wind gusts and/or dime size hail. Yawn.

Severe - Storms with at least minimum severe criteria. Wind gusts to 75mph and/or hail up to golfball size. Usually a slight risk of a tornado. Just enough for me to keep an eye on the radar and NWR turned on.

Very Severe - Storms that scare old people, small children, and small, cute furry animals (small dogs should take cover). Wind gusts up to 90 mph and/or hail up to baseball size. Usually a slight to moderate risk of a tornado. I seriously consider (and often do) call in sick or change my social plans.

Extremely Severe - Storms that create chaser nirvana, ecstasy, stormgasm, and the forbidden sacred dance of chaser merriment. Normal, sane and rational members of the community are terrified and seek shelter immediately. Wind gusts exceeding 80mph and/or hail up to the size of small watermelons. A moderate to strong risk of tornadoes with significant tornadoes expected. Unless I am in an Intensive Care Unit with a ventilator crammed down my throat, IV tubes everywhere, and a mean 300 pound nurse between me and the exit...I will be out there for sure. :-)

Remember, I am not a professional, degreed meteorologist (although I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express®). My outlook is mainly for fun and to test and hone my skills as an amateur meteorologist. The guys at the Storms Prediction Center are the experts. My outlooks are mainly designed for stormchasers as we will drive hundreds of miles in search of our prey. Email me with comments or questions at txt@gte.net . With that in mind, here we go!!

TODAY'S OUTLOOK
Intense capping inversion killed any hopes for convection yesterday. It was abit stronger than anticipated. The upper ridging and warming falsely advertised for the past couple of weeks has finally come true.
 
Although the dryline will again setup across extreme W OK and the eastern panhandle, incredible cap will keep things tranquil despite good instability and surface convergence. It just appears that the cap is too strong and too deep.
 
Widely scattered general storms will be possible across the SE half of TX where the cap appears weaker and moisture deeper.

In the extended, the scenario being touted by the models indicate a possible significant outbreak of severe weather across the northern and central plains down into the N TX panhandle and N OK by mid week. Unusually strong upper jet for this time of year is forecast to be creating havoc starting Tuesday.

As I stated above, this will the last of my regular outlooks until fall. However, I will issue one provided conditions warrant if a severe threat occurs closer to my home chase territory across central OK, NW central and northern TX.