ETA had progged a shortwave moving from New Mexico into northwest Oklahoma into the evening. However, it forecast it to rapidly weaken as it did so. I didn't buy into that given the 1500Z analysis and water vapor loop showing it a little stronger and slower than forecast. A check with the AMA forecast discussion that morning picked up on that as well. The mid-level winds would definitely be stronger near the Red River and southward with a strong low-level jet from Central Texas into Central Oklahoma. My analysis indicated that the better compromise would be from about SPS to OKC. The soundings did not look very favorable in Texas and showing very shallow moisture with a moderate cap and weak lapse rates. However, the soundings from ELZ and ABQ superimposed over AMA, OUN and FWD looked alot better for later in the day but was still worried about getting the CAPE value up where it needed to be but mid-level lapse rates looked to be pretty impressive. The shear profile looked to be very nice if my forecast was correct.
 
At the surface, a low pressure center was setting up in the panhandles with a dryline extending southward into the central sections of the panhandle and expected to move eastward. South winds were at about 10-20mph but increasing in West Texas. The biggest concern I had was weak moisture return. Dewpoints by mid morning were only in the mid to low 50's with the rest of the moisture trapped in South Texas. Hopes were that some of this would work to at least near the Red River. Satellite showed an elevated layer of clouds (moisture) in SW Texas moving north. I thought that would be my ace-in-the-hole concerning moisture if the surface didn't respond as hoped. Surface temps looked to be pretty nice as well and better the further south you went from Central Oklahoma.

Overall, putting everything together, I targeted the area just west of Wichita Falls near Vernon. You will see that I nailed it perfectly. *patting self on back*
 
 
PRE-CHASE 

I rolled into SPS about 2:30pm and into a thick elevated stratus deck and some sprinkles with the temp falling from 74 to 68...not good. The clouds I saw in SW Texas had thickened up and producing some light showers. I was afraid that I would get "socked in" by the clouds and cooler temps killing the chances for severe storms. However, a quick check at a motel with TWC showed a nice clearing just to the west! Plus, a tornado watch had been issued for my target area. I hopped back in the truck and headed for Vernon. As I got into Vernon around 3:15, a light shower was in progress with temp still at 68, but I could see clearing skies immediately to the west.
 
I stopped off at the Days Inn where they have TWC on always and very nice management. I waited there as the cloud deck moved off...CLEAR SKIES!!!  The temperature jumped from 68 to 72 immediately at 3:45!! I decided to top off the tank and my stomach as I noticed towering Cus to the west. At 4:00pm..I saw a nice anvil building off to the west....YES!!!  The surface winds starting howling out of the SE at 15 to 25mph. I could see some cumulus clouds exhibiting excellent horizontal vorticity with their bases moving from the SE and their tops getting rolled over from the south and southwest....very cool looking. It also told me I was in the right spot.
 
By 4:30pm, the temperature had jumped all the way to 77F with steady SE winds of 15-20 and higher gusts!!! The storms to the west started looking more like a supercell. Smaller showers and thunderstorms were developing just to my NW and N moving off to the NE. The fledgling supercell was still moving right towards me in Vernon. It was now close enough to see a rainfree base to SW of the intensifying precipitation core...perfect setup with the SE inflow racing into it. It was time to intercept!
 
 
 
 
THE CHASE IS ON!!!! 

I took off down Hwy 70 SW out of Vernon and positioned myself about 2 miles SW of Vernon near 70 and 2073. At 5:10, I saw the first rapidly developing wall cloud about 5 miles to the WNW with decent rotation and vertical moving scud. This persisted for about 15 minutes with nice beavers tail until it got very close...right overhead. Unfortunately, the outflow from the NW was undercutting it keeping the circulation confined to near the cloud base. I was totally mesmerized by the rapid unorganized rotation overhead and "forgot" about the impending hail shaft but was soon reminded by a "thunk" on the cab of my trunk. There was a very kind and friendly garage owner where I was parked and he let me and my truck duck inside. I didn't catch his name, but I was sure thankful. Dime to quarter sized hail ensued for about 5 minutes covering the ground. The temp dropped to 63F. I could still see the storm just off to the east and the rotation had become broader and much better organized with moderate rotation. The Civil Defense sirens then went off. I watched it for a few minutes, but wanted to get back ahead of it.

Being extremely cautious and anticipating a right turner, I headed SE on 2074 for a a few miles then took 433 to the ENE towards Oklaunion where the temp jumped back up to 74F. The paved part ended at 283 but continued straight on as a maintained dirt road. Thank goodness for my truck and 4x4...I needed it. Blazing across the open terrain with a huge red dust cloud erupting behind me, I finally ended up near Oklaunion. The storm was still exhibiting a nice wall cloud with organized rotation. I could see the storm structure at this point which was developing some classic striations and a slight corkscrew appearance. Inflow bands and a beavers tail was setting up nicely. Temp was now back up to 77F. The storm had become a right turner and was heading almost due east....about 085 on the compass heading. Keeping safety in mind and trying to keep in front of it, I headed down 287 to 240 in Harrold. I pulled over to watch the wall cloud sputter out but hopeful of the new backbuilding cell. It is now about 6:00pm. The inflow was really incredible at least 20mph sustained and higher. Soon, another wall cloud started developing with pretty good rotation and vertically moving scud. I could tell the storm was well past the Red River and picking up speed, so I paralleled it going down 240 to Burkeburnett where I could cross the Red River on 281/44. Just as I got into Burkeburnett, the wall cloud started getting better organized about 6 miles to my north, so I pulled over briefly to monitor it in case a funnel developed. Seeing that it wasn't, I gambled and hit 281/44 into Oklahoma.
 
About 5 miles across Big Red, I pulled over at the Hwy 70 intersection and got some great pics of a well organized wall cloud. It too fizzled out, but more updrafts were developing. By this time, the storm had a great striated base with a beautiful inflow band. I headed down 70 going east until hwy 65 where I turned north. After a couple of miles, I pulled over to get some great shots off the entire structure and a new updraft initiating. I headed on in to Temple, OK where I swear I saw Jim Leonard. By this time, a new wall cloud had developed and the storm was again a right turner heading east. When I saw Jim, I knew I was too close!  ;-)
 
I jogged SE abit on 5 to Hastings where I turned north towards Waurika Lake (reddest danged body of water I ever seen!) I pulled over to watch the persistent wall cloud and saw a new RFD develop which I got pictures of. I headed up towards Corum at hwy 53 and turned east where I ended the chase at Comanche due to lack of daylight and the storm was weakening. Man, was I beat!
 
 
 
POST CHASE 

 
 
Steve Miller
Texas Tailchaser
txt@gte.net
 
 
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