1_25_04 Carnegie Endowment for Peace

The Carnegie Endowment for Peace Report

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States. Founded in 1910, its work is nonpartisan and dedicated to achieving practical results. On January 8, 2004 it released a new report, "WMD in IRAQ: Evidence and Implications," a study that compares massive amounts of data of pre-war intelligence on Iraq weapons of mass destruction side-by-side with the official presentation of that intelligence, and what is now known about Iraq’s programs. The authors, Jessica T. Mathews, Carnegie president, George Perkovich, Carnegie vice president for studies, and Joseph Cirincione, senior associate and director of the non-proliferation project summarized their findings as follows:

"SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS

Iraq WMD Was Not An Immediate Threat
· Iraq's nuclear program had been suspended for many years; Iraq focused on preserving a latent, dual-use chemical and probably biological weapons capability, not weapons production.
· Iraqi nerve agents had lost most of their lethality as early as 1991.
· Operations Desert Storm and Desert Fox, and UN inspections and sanctions effectively destroyed Iraq's large-scale chemical weapon production capabilities.

Inspections Were Working
· Post-war searches suggest the UN inspections were on track to find what was there.
· International constraints, sanctions, procurement, investigations, and the export/import control mechanism appear to have been considerably more effective than was thought.

Intelligence Failed and Was Misrepresented
· Intelligence community overestimated the chemical and biological weapons in Iraq.
· Intelligence community appears to have been unduly influenced by policymakers' views.
· Officials misrepresented threat from Iraq's WMD and ballistic missiles programs over and above intelligence findings.

Terrorist Connection Missing
· No solid evidence of cooperative relationship between Saddam's government and Al Qaeda.
· No evidence that Iraq would have transferred WMD to terrorists-and much evidence to counter it.
· No evidence to suggest that deterrence was no longer operable.

Post-War WMD Search Ignored Key Resources
· Past relationships with Iraqi scientists and officials, and credibility of UNMOVIC experts represent a vital resource that has been ignored when it should be being fully exploited.
· Data from the seven years of UNSCOM/IAEA inspections are absolutely essential. Direct involvement of those who compiled the more-than-30-million- page record is needed.

War Was Not the Best-Or Only-Option
· There were at least two options preferable to a war undertaken without international support: allowing the UNMOVIC/IAEA inspections to continue until obstructed or completed, or imposing a tougher program of "coercive inspections."

Read the full report at www.ceip.org/WMD"


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		The Carnegie Endowment for Peace Report The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States. Founded in 1910, its work is nonpartisan and dedicated to achieving practical results. On January 8, 2004 it released a new report, "WMD in IRAQ: Evidence and Implications," a study that compares massive amounts of data of pre-war intelligence on Iraq weapons of mass destruction side-by-side with the official presentation of that intelligence, and what is now known about Iraq’s programs. The authors, Jessica T. Mathews, Carnegie president, George Perkovich, Carnegie vice president for studies, and Joseph Cirincione, senior associate and director of the non-proliferation project summarized their findings as follows: "SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS Iraq WMD Was Not An Immediate Threat · Iraq's nuclear program had been suspended for many years; Iraq focused on preserving a latent, dual-use chemical and probably biological weapons capability, not weapons production. · Iraqi nerve agents had lost most of their lethality as early as 1991. · Operations Desert Storm and Desert Fox, and UN inspections and sanctions effectively destroyed Iraq's large-scale chemical weapon production capabilities. Inspections Were Working · Post-war searches suggest the UN inspections were on track to find what was there. · International constraints, sanctions, procurement, investigations, and the export/import control mechanism appear to have been considerably more effective than was thought. Intelligence Failed and Was Misrepresented · Intelligence community overestimated the chemical and biological weapons in Iraq. · Intelligence community appears to have been unduly influenced by policymakers' views. · Officials misrepresented threat from Iraq's WMD and ballistic missiles programs over and above intelligence findings. Terrorist Connection Missing · No solid evidence of cooperative relationship between Saddam's government and Al Qaeda. · No evidence that Iraq would have transferred WMD to terrorists-and much evidence to counter it. · No evidence to suggest that deterrence was no longer operable. Post-War WMD Search Ignored Key Resources · Past relationships with Iraqi scientists and officials, and credibility of UNMOVIC experts represent a vital resource that has been ignored when it should be being fully exploited. · Data from the seven years of UNSCOM/IAEA inspections are absolutely essential. Direct involvement of those who compiled the more-than-30-million- page record is needed. War Was Not the Best-Or Only-Option · There were at least two options preferable to a war undertaken without international support: allowing the UNMOVIC/IAEA inspections to continue until obstructed or completed, or imposing a tougher program of "coercive inspections." Read the full report at www.ceip.org/WMD" http://www.ceip.org/files/Publications/IraqSummary.asp © 2003 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.



		On Friday, Jan. 30^th, Dr. Helen Caldicott and other panelists will present two programs on Depleted Uranium in the New Jersey Medical School in Newark: "HEALTH EFFECTS OF DEPLETED URANIUM WEAPONRY: Problems in NJ, Vieques, & Iraq" at noon, Room B610, "NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST BY ACCIDENT - TERRORISM OR WAR: An Increasing Possibility" at 7:00 pm, Room B556. Save Saturday, Feb 7 for an afternoon and evening program with Fr. Simon Harak. Fr. Harak co-foundered Voices In the Wilderness with Kathy Kelly. They were nominated several times for the Nobel Peace Prize for their work in Iraq. 1/25/04 '04 Issue 4